When September 20th comes

It is now but a few days until the Palestinian authority approaches the UN with the request of acknowledgement in the Palestinian state.

Let us assume that Mr. Abbas will indeed make that request and not back out in the last minute quoting some American or Israeli gesture as "giving the negotiations a new hope". Even so, the request is the act itself is like the proverb "fire cups for the dead", i.e. completely pointless.

Why am I so skeptic you ask?

First of all, remember Yasser Arafat has already declared the independence of a Palestinian state, and this was accepted by a host of countries, resulting in him being invited to speak to the UN general assembly in 1988. Looking today, that move wasn't all that helpful to Palestinian statehood.

Second, the PA does not really represent the Palestinian people today. Officially they do, but in reality, the PA and Fatah have no control over the Gaza strip, and the two governments are quite hostile to each other. Furthermore, in disputed areas, where it is unclear if under any future agreement they will be a part of Israel or Palestine, most Palestinians would rather stay under Israeli rule than be a part of Palestine (Hebrew: http://www.news1.co.il/Archive/003-D-58771-00.html, English: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4064783,00.html). There are also many Palestinians living in refugee camps in neighboring countries, would the new Palestinian state take care of all of them, or will they keep insisting Israel has to take them in, despite having their own state?

Third, Assuming Hamas does yield to Fatah, how are the two parts of this state supposed to work together not through an agreement with Israel? The two parts of Palestine are divided, and Israel has no interest in allowing movement between them if it the declaration of statehood is one-sided. This would make it very hard for the new state to function as one cultural-economic unit (see Pakistan for reference).

Lastly, though I have barely touched on the issues above (some of which are quite "big"), there arises the simple question of the ability to exert control and authority over they territory claimed. The simple truth is that the PA does not really control all the land it claims, and even worse, cannot control it, whether it is because the IDE sits there, or because Hamas controls it, or simply because the PA security mechanisms are too weak to do the job.

There are many more factors in play which I have not mentioned here. It is enough to consider only those I have mentioned here to come to the conclusion that even if the PA applies for statehood on September 20th and is grated that status, such a state will not come into existence. There are many countries that already recognize Palestine, and many more will no doubt join. The pressure on Israel to withdraw from territories will mount. However, none of it will change any on the facts noted above that show that the Palestinians will be unable to establish and run a state for completely different reasons. If Mahmud Abbas is aware of any of this, he will find a way to back away from his plan. Only a few more days remain to how he acts.