Aequitas et Gravitas

Just when I thought there was no more hope, nothing left to write, I have been spurred to speech again.  
As I finished a fantastic sushi dinner with a dear friend, an armada of aid-bearing ships bound for the beleaguered Gaza Strip were some 200km offshore.  As I devised some sort of reasonable plan for my future, others threw their scheme to scuttle this shipment of humanitarian aid into action.  
Facts are beginning to trickle in, as they often do in cases like this.  Israel commandos rappelled from helicopters onto the flagship and were met by some (expected, and not unjustified) resistance in the form of angry protesters with blunt weapons.  In the fray (reports differ, see Jpost or Haaretz's accounts) soldiers retaliated in alleged self-defense and killed and injured a slew of activists.  Those aboard the flagship, the Mavi Marmara of Turkey, have been branded by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the Foreign Ministry as "violent supporters of a terror organization".  Deputy Foreign Fuckhead Minister, Danny Ayalon, called the blockade-running convoy an "armada of hate and violence" and stated that its "organizers' intent was violent, their method was violent, and unfortunately, the results were violent."  Although he claims arms were found onboard, no evidence of such has been demonstrated.  
Yet again the current Israeli government has thrashed and bumbled its way into a diplomatic shitstorm.  The willingness to employ lethal force when not absolutely necessary (in this case sending the commandos on board which precipitated the use of violence) has again stained Israel's increasingly murky reputation.  Plenty of alternatives to sending troops aboard existed, but none were employed; now the soldiers are praised by Barak for bravely boarding a ship-full of leftist protesters.  As today's protests in Turkey and across the globe testify, Israel's international standing is precarious.
I shall not attempt to prognosticate how this will affect the "peace process" or Israel's relations with Turkey or anyone else. Time will tell.  What can be said is that those in charge of dealing with the "Free Gaza" fleet displayed a lack of acumen and diplomatic poise all-too-typical of the current administration.  Whatever alternatives there were to letting the ships through or assaulting it as they did are now irrelevant.  The damage to Israel's standing abroad has been dealt, and Israelis and their government must hold their breath and hope for the best.  The gravity of this event should not be underestimated.  
Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto's plaintive musing after Pearl Harbor has particular and increasing significance: "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."  

The Freedom Flotilla and the Day Israel Lost

The events that occurred this morning represent a victory in the anti-Israel propaganda machine, much to the delight of the Hamas rulers of Gaza. They are not mourning the death of ten activists today, but rejoicing in Israel’s bad press.

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority people have a very short attention span and tend to regard each isolated incident as the whole of the conflict.  When a Palestinian blows him or herself up, the Palestinians are bad guys.  When Israel does just about anything else, Israel becomes the bad guy.  The truth is that the Arab-Israeli conflict has an incredible number of players in it that reach far beyond the roles of oppressor and victim.

In my view, the suffering of Palestinians has been allowed to continue from 1948 in the goal of Arab unity; a unity that exists solely behind the façade of opposition to Israel.  There are Muslim elements to the conflict that have seen it spread beyond merely the Arab world, but involve Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia and with the jingoist anti-secular Erdogan, now Turkey as well.

I believe that those who were aboard the 6 ships that made up the “Freedom Flotilla” had some noble purpose at heart.  The media, however, has referred to them as “peace activists” which they most certainly are not.  They are pro-Palestinian activists who were attempting to break a legal Israeli blockade of Gaza.  The Palestinians do NOT have sovereignty, the waters that surround Gaza fall into Israeli sovereignty.  While the ships were indeed carrying thousands of tons of cargo, supposedly humanitarian relief, the true goal of this “Freedom Flotilla” was to provoke the IDF into the response that it so duly carried out.  The flotilla’s true purpose was to prompt the IDF into violence that would be deplored the world over in an attempt to expose it as an evil organisation that cares not for “peace activists”.

Well, the same populace that has a short memory for history and views each event of the Arab-Israeli conflict isolation, tends also to see things in black and white. Many will view this action as criminal. Many will claim to now have proof that Israel is a violent and racist society that does not want peace. These actions were carried out by soldiers who took orders.  The people sitting at the top of our government are right-wing lunatics.  The same mentality that allows for events to be viewed in black and white, also lumps whole nations together as if ever individual were of one mind.  Just as I encountered incredible anti-American sentiment in Europe during the Bush years, with many Europeans ignorant to the idea that I could posit different views than that of the president of my country, so too will many left minded persons view me as part of the violent Israeli machine that oppresses Palestinians.

This huge loss in the war for publicity should be a wake up call to Israelis that we must have a final peace settlement as soon as possible.  Let the Palestinians have a state whose inception will be guided by democratic values under the oversight of the UN and EU.   Let us rid ourselves of the excuse for violence.  Let us return to holding our own success as the primary goal of the Jewish State, that will allow better integration into the global community without the constant Palestinian stigma hanging above our heads.  Israel is doing a terrible job of playing the game.  We need to clean up our act.

The Iranian-Turkish-Brazilian deal – win win tactics of the Iranian regime

Note: this blog would be better understood if read after my previous blog – The Iranian Nuclear Strategy- an Unconventional Approach.

In my previous post I argued that the essence of the Iranian nuclear strategy is to advance towards being on the verge of nuclear capability and maintain that situation until it increases its regional stand and could endure the consequences of becoming a nuclear state. In the following blog I explain the real meanings of the deal signed on May 17th 2010 between Brazil, Turkey and Iran and how it strengthens my former argument. I also demonstrate how the Security Council's response which threatens Iran with more sanctions, only empowers the Iranian regime and ironically helps its survival.


According to the deal, Iran will transfer 1,200 Kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. In exchange, a year later it will receive 120 kg of uranium enriched to a higher level (around 20%) that will be used for the Teheran Research Reactor. The core content of this deal does not affect the Iranian nuclear strategy for a two main reasons. First, according to the deal, Iran is still eligible to continue and acquire and enriching uranium, as the first paragraph of the agreement says:" recall the right of all State Parties, including the Islamic Republic of Iran, to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy (as well as nuclear fuel cycle including enrichment activities) for peaceful purposes without discrimination ". Second, western intelligence services believe that the amount of uranium Iran plans to transfer represent about a half of its total supply of Lower Enriched Uranium. By keeping another 1,200kg of Lower Enriched Uranium Iran still enjoys nuclear deterrence since it still holds enough LEU sufficient for a buildup of one unclear bomb. Finally, Iran could continue enriching uranium up to 20% and store it until it decides to continue to the final stages of building a nuclear bomb. Within this timeframe, Iran would continue strengthen its ties with its allies in the Middle East and weaken its foes until its regains regional supremacy.


The content of the agreement not only allows Iran to keep its nuclear strategy, but Iran's adoption of a diplomatic approach puts difficulties for those countries who press for a more aggressive attitude with the Iranian nuclear program. The US or any other country that would press for sanctions or any other non-diplomatic solution will be seen in a bad light for not accepting the diplomatic approach, especially when the great powers themselves offered Iran to sign on an almost identical agreement in October 2009. The rapid response made by US secretary of state Hillary Clinton who stated that the permanent members of the Security Council reached an agreement on a draft resolution that includes new sanctions on Iran could defy this argument; however the current domestic reality in Iran may suggest that the US fell into an Iranian trap.


The internal political timing in which Iran chose to sign the trio-deal had great significance for the Iranian regime, which could have been hidden from the eyes of the US and its allies. According to Political Science Professor Farideh Farhi, there is an overwhelming domestic support for this agreement, especially within the Iranian elite. The agreement was voted for by 200 out of 290 Iranian parliament members and was also positively mentioned vis a vis newspaper editorials written by some impotent intellectuals who are reform oriented. The internal cohesion is crucial for the Iranian regime since on June 12th, the Iranians will mark the anniversary for the 2009 disputed presidential elections. The supportive sense created by the agreement in the Iranian public will help the regime avoid the expected protests from the green opposition movement and at the same time could create even a greater unity in the case the Security Council adopts new sanctions against Iran.


In addition, the draft resolution that was published on May 18th, suggests that the new sanctions the Security Council wishes to impose on Iran are relatively modest and will not harm the Iranian people to an extent that they would turn against the regime. In short, the new sanctions include: limitations on arms sales to Iran, traveling restrictions on the Iranian revolutionary guards, allowing all states to inspect Iranian vessels which they suspect carrying nuclear materials, and calls upon states not to allow Iranian banks to open new branches on their soils as well as some commercial and financial measures. The new sanctions could (if adopted) slightly harm the Iranian military or revolutionary guards, but it lacks a real effect since it depends on the good will of countries and people to comply with it and mostly because there will be no severe effect on the everyday lives of Iranians that could have created frustration directed
at the regime to change its policies.


The bottom line is that the trio-nuclear deal serves the ultimate interest of the Iranian regime which is to ensure its survival – by maintaining their nuclear program - which is also a means to increase internal unity and support for the regime. If the deal would pass or not, Iran could maintain its ambiguous nuclear strategy – continue enriching uranium up to 20%, wait until it is ready politically to move to the final stages of enrichment and acquiring nuclear capability, and at the same time deter Israel and its other regional rivals. If the big five of the Security Council manage to pass the new sanctions resolution, then the real effect on the Iranian nuclear program will be minimal and domestic support for the regime will only increase in face global opposition to a domestic unanimity. If the resolution fails it would also count as a victory for the Iranian regime in the eyes of its people. This simplistic game theory analysis suggests that the signing of the Iranian nuclear deal created a win-win situation for the Iranian regime.


Another important win for the Iran that was achieved due to the agreement is that in order to get Russia to support the draft resolution, the US removed its objection for the Russian sell of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran (as reported by the New York Times on May 21st ). This move has important meaning for Israel which its aerial military attack could suffer a major setback if these missiles are to be deployed. Considering the probable ineffectiveness of the sanctions on the Iranian nuclear program and the arrival of the S-300 missiles to Iran, the likelihood of a preemptive Israeli attack on Iran could be increasing.

Israel and Israelis: Seeking a different kind of recognition

On the up side, Israelis are known to possess creativity, strong individualism and a can’t-miss competitive spirit. Yet, contrary to these traits, they are often also perceived as abrasive, rude, obnoxious, loud, blunt, and straight-forward.

And, oh yeah – they definitely are not known as the best athletes in the world. Sports?  That’s just not for them.

Or is it?

Israel has generally not produced teams that have been able to succeed at the international level.  Some back the old stereotype of Jews as a race lacking athletic ability, while others insist that sports are not a priority in the upbringing of Jewish youth.  This has proven to be false in “individual sports”; in tennis,  judo, and boxing Jews have performed exceedingly well.

Others claim it is something found within the dynamic of their society, as sport figures in Israel usually lack the commitment and motivation professional sports require (this may be due to the lack of money available in Israel for professional athletes compared to their counterparts around the world).  Israelis' sport of choice, soccer, is played differently here than it is elsewhere: more shouting and less running, making for a decisively less interesting game.

But in baseball-- yes, baseball-- Israel has excelled.  In terms of success per number of players (players in the Israel Baseball Association range from the ages of 16-60), Israel is a powerhouse, already having produced five college players and one Major League Baseball academy attendee in the last two years alone.

Baseball seems to grow well on Israelis as it combines individual performance – the pitcher-batter duel – and a team spirit, which speaks to Israeli camaraderie.  National team preparations are under way for next year’s European qualifiers.  The last time the Israeli national team competed, in 2008, they finished in 3rd place.  They met defeat in a nail-biting tie into the ninth inning against host and group winner Croatia.  Israel also beat the no. 2 team in their group, Lithuania, while losing a heartbreaker to Bulgaria, after dropping a 7-run lead in the sixth.

“This game will humble you,” says coach Dan Rothem, “It always does.  Just when you think you have it figured out, you’re in for another lesson.”  Rothem’s baseball experience (he was the first Israeli to pitch for a college team) has led him to build his team focusing on the process instead of the outcome. Some say playing baseball is easy.  All you have to do is pitch well, defend well, and put the lumber on the ball.  Anyone who has ever played knows that this is said with a cunning smile, as baseball may be one the hardest sports in which to excel.  “Baseball is different,” continues Rothem. “Your emotions will fail you. Outbursts of passion for winning and the rage of losing must be channeled the right way, or they will lead you to your own demise.” Learning the true game is the process that the Israeli team must embrace, before it even steps on the field.

After that, of course, things get easy. All you have to do is pitch, hit, and defend well.  We shall see if Rothem can follow through with his team's home run swing.

Contributing author Asaf Rothem is a member of the Israeli National Baseball Team.


The Israel Association of Baseball (IAB) is a non-profit organization, duly registered in Israel, and since its inception in 1986 is dedicated to promoting and developing baseball in Israel. The IAB is a member of The Israel Olympic Committee, The Confederation of European Baseball (CEB) and The International Baseball Federation (IBAF), Positive Coaching Alliance (PCA), Major League Baseball International (MLBI) and Little League. The Israel Sports Authority as well as the above-mentioned organizations, recognize the IAB as the governing body for baseball in Israel.

IAB Website: www.baseball.org.il
Israel National Team Website: www.israelbaseball.org

Russia's Return to the Middle East

Back in the good old days of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union battled for influence over Middle Eastern states.  Through their proxies, Israel with the Americans and Syria and Egypt with the Soviets, the two global powers clashed.  With the 1973 defeat of the Arab armies in the Yom Kippur War, the United States drove a wedge between Syria and Egypt and their Soviet backers.  According to political scientists, that marked the end of Russia's diplomatic heyday in the Middle East.  Since then, its been the American diplomatic sandbox from Israel to Iraq, Turkey to Saudi Arabia.
It therefore comes as a bit of a shock to hear that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has broken through the barricades and busted onto scene by making a Middle East tour, visiting Syria and Turkey.  Medvedev has reportedly come to discuss arms deals, trade, and energy--namely, oil, gas, and atomic-- cooperation.  Assad has visited Moscow three times in the last five years, but this the first visit of a Russian head of state to Syria, but his outreach to the Arab capital marks a shift in Russian involvement in the region as well.  According to an al-Jazeera report, Russian trade to Syria amounts to more than $2 billion per annum and expanding.  The purported arms deal has raised concerns that Russia may supply the Baathist regime with weaponry that may be used against Israel directly or by Syria's proxy, Hezbollah.  
More impressive --shocking, really-- Medvedev met with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Damascus (something American and Israeli leaders refuse to even consider) before heading to Turkey, Russia's #2 trade partner.  The Jerusalem Post and Haaretz reported that Medevedev called upon Meshaal to free captive Israeli solider Gilad Shalit and expressed commitment to bringing an end to the Israeli blockade of humanitarian aid to Gaza.  
Russia is clearly taking a more proactive foreign policy approach in the Middle East by improving relations with its closest regional partners and backing them when it can (take the Kremlin's support for an Iranian civilian nuclear program, for instance).  While Obama remains entangled in domestic affairs and is avoiding Middle Eastern foreign policy at all costs, the Russian are sticking their necks out and hope to fill the void.  This most recent tour by Medvedev is Russia's successful attempt to establish a physical presence in the region and present itself once again as a regional power, a second pole, for conflict resolution.  It remains to be seen whether that resolution will be peaceful or violent, and how the Americans will react to this encroachment on their sphere of influence.      

Jerusalem Day - Keep it to Yourself

Jerusalem Day is an Israeli national holiday celebrated every year on the 28th day of the month of Iyyar. This holiday recognizes the unification of East and West Jerusalem under Israeli rule during the 1967 Six Day War.

These triumphant rituals trigger feelings of disgust that I tend to hold deep inside all year long. My antagonism is mainly against the falsified way Jerusalem’s reality is presented. Only a realistic representation of Jerusalem’s complex demographic reality will help solve the most difficult issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Any visitor to Jerusalem will notice the enormous difference between East and West Jerusalem. If uniting the city is symbolic and can be done by Knesset legislation – so be it. Jerusalem is a mess, a mess that needs serious effort mainly from the Israelis and the Palestinians.

This mess is not just political or religious. It relates to the pressing concern of Palestinian unemployment, expansion of drug related activities, and, most of all, a serious housing shortage in East Jerusalem – Sheikh Jarrah being only a symbolic example of a greater problem. Just as there is a difference between South and North Tel Aviv, there is an enormous, daresay even greater and intractable, difference between East and West Jerusalem. Yet the extent of that division nonetheless does not convince many of the silliness of the notion of a unified Jerusalem.

When was the last time a new Palestinian neighborhood project took place? Since 1948, not even one Palestinian/Arab city was built in Israel, let alone a neighborhood in Jerusalem.

Once upon a time you had to drive 30 minutes from Jerusalem to Bethlehem. Today, it’s just one “united” neighborhood with one motto: “We’re uniting this city with the power of the D9”.

Two Israeli Arabs Arrested on suspicion of spying

I love these big headlines in the Israeli news papers. I actually can’t wait for tomorrow and the responses I will face.  We should all go back to the previous saga with Anat Kamm and Uri Blau and expect no mercy from the populist media – never let the facts get in the way of a “good” story.

I am not familiar with the facts of the above mentioned cases. My main problem in addition to the media coverage is with the Shin Bet and the gag orders, creating a reality where Israeli citizen have to rely on rumors, blogs and the foreign media.

I read about the arrest of Ameer Makhoul and curiosity drove me out of bed to my laptop to dig for the story. I eventually made it to the Silverstein blog with the help of a friend. Unfortunately, the obvious was written and again I couldn’t understand the gag order. What is it good for? What kind of information are they hiding? Why was the gag not imposed on the Israeli Arabic media?

I hope that as time passes more information will be revealed to the public about the suspicions. I still can’t understand what kind of “sensitive” information Mr. Makhoul was exposed to. As far as we know he was involved mainly in the NGO business related to Israeli Arab/Palestinians and the boycott on products produces in the West Bank. It’s not like he worked with the Intelligence services or the Israeli Defense Force. But then again, I might be wrong.

Meanwhile, Mr. Makhoul was eventually allowed to meet his lawyer; after being arrested for two weeks of intense investigations.  More and more I am realizing that the price we must pay for  democracy is crushing it.

To My Good Friend Elie Wiesel: A response to your letter, "For Jerusalem"

For Peace

There is no doubt between us – as reflected from our years of knowing one another – about the deep admiration I have for the Jewish people in terms of their rich history, culture, contribution to humanity and most importantly, the will to conceive and thrive amongst nations in a territory of their own. The state of Israel is a modern day miracle, and there is no question that the world must help preserve that miracle while recognizing that without the state of Israel, the world would be lacking a crucial component in dealing with the global issues that will thrust us forward and allow future generations of people across the globe to live in security, comfort and most importantly – Peace.

It is that word, that future reality, that Peace – that will allow the Jewish state to flourish and realize its ultimate Zionist aspirations envisioned by its founding fathers and mothers. Unfortunately, for both Israelis and Palestinians – in hopes of finding what should ultimately lead to the end of a conflict defined by decades of bloodshed – there will have to be compromises and concessions made by both parties. And without forgetting the deep connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem and as you so eloquently expressed “what binds one Jew to another in a way that remains hard to explain”, we must recognize the right of self determination of another nation which also cherishes the preciousness of Jerusalem and the unexplainable spiritual significance it invokes.

In reference to your candid observation regarding Jerusalem’s status had the Jordanians not entered the Six Day War of 1967:

[“It is important to remember: had Jordan not joined Egypt and Syrian in the 1967 war against Israel, the old city of Jerusalem would still be Arab”]

I must stress the importance that “History” cannot be the defining factor in how we attempt to approach our current paradoxes and future realities. We can use history to recognize our rich heritage while at the same time realizing that our heritage – our struggles – cannot come in the face of others who are fighting their own battles for inalienable human rights and individual determination.

Yes, my admired friend, you are correct: for the first time in history, Jews, Christians and Muslims all may freely worship at their shrines. However, I do have one quip regarding your statement that “Jews, Christians and Muslims ARE allowed to build their homes anywhere in the city”. This statement seems to be quite jaded in general. As you and I both know all too well, after 1967, that Arab citizens who had been living in West Jerusalem were NOT allowed to return back to their homes as those properties had been appropriated by Israel proper, while Jews were free to move back to the areas in which they had previously resided prior to the 1948 War of Independence.

Israel’s expansion of Jerusalem and its surrounding areas unfortunately does not just deal with the 6km2 captured in the Old City; rather it also encompasses the other 64km2 of territory which incorporates dozens of other neighborhoods and settlements established by Israel at the defeat of the Jordanians. As you know, it is this entire 70km2, which has been filtered into the Jerusalem Municipality and not just the 6km2 to which you have referenced.

With regards to these figures, there can be a suitable solution in which Jews will be able to maintain their sovereignty over their communities and holy shrines while adjusting the already inconclusive borders to provide for a Palestinian state in which a segment of Jerusalem and its surrounding areas will be part of that state.

This is not a matter of East and West Jerusalem – rather a matter of greater Jerusalem (primarily speaking of the 64km2 in ADDITION to what Israel captured when it gained control of the Old City). As a result, due to the rapid transfer and control of various territories by the ruling countries in these disputed areas as well as the undeniable lack of “official borders”, Israelis and Palestinians - with the help of the United States and other nations throughout the world - should be able to create a newly defined and comprehensive map that will foster the establishment of what we can previously call “pseudo borders”.

The United States is by no means asking Israel to “give up Jerusalem” with all the cultural, spiritual and historical importance upon which the embodiment of the Jewish people rests its dreams and its future; rather, it is working to establish a working definition to establish possible outcomes for a redistribution of territory based on a number of factors such as population scales, religious significance, economic self interest and security interests – and those are just a few of the many considerations – in order to establish a functioning Palestinian state living aside its Israeli – its Jewish – counterpart.

Dear friend, because of our friendship, mutual understanding and indefinable depth of respect for one another, you have my word and the word of the United States Government, that negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians and their right to self determination will only function on the contingency of the assurance of Israel’s right to secure itself and her people. In no way will neither the security of the State of Israel nor that of the Jewish people be compromised in the quest for Peace in the Middle East. Any final compromise between the parties at hand would never change the reality that Jerusalem will always be “the heart of your heart and the soul of your soul” and the place in which all future generations of Jews and Israelis will be able to go and hold their heads up with dignity because they were the ones who created and sheltered Peace in a region that has only seen war and struggle throughout its history.

As the late King Hussein of Jordan expressed time and time again:

“For our part, we shall continue to work for the new dawn when all the Children of Abraham and their descendants are living together in the birthplace of their three great monotheistic religions, a life free from fear, a life free from want - a life in peace.”

There is no other option.

Yours,

Barrack

Voting and Religious Parties

Religious parties are unavoidable in a Jewish state, and it is terrifying that over 1/6th of the total seats in the Knesset are held by them.  Each one, it seems, is more radical than the next.  Shas represents a socio-economically disenfranchised Mizrahi population but espouses theocratic rule and a "return to past glory".  With eleven seats in this Knesset they are no laughing matter.  The other ultra-orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, has similar aims but barks from the other side of the ethnic aisle.  Ashkenazim like them hold Sephardim and Arabs in equal disdain.  The final two parties, The Jewish Home and the National Union, are slightly less stringent in their religious orthodoxy but staunch nationalists unwilling to give an inch of The Land to a non-Jew.  All of these parties are right-wing coalition-builders.

I do not think banning these parties would be an effective solution like banning Kach in 1988 was.  Not only are there no legitimate grounds for their dismissal from the lists, but with such a vast following it could spark a religious uprising.  Shas' eleven seats translates to approximately 300,000 Israelis, factoring in another five seats for NTJ, four for the National Union, and three for The Jewish Home amounts to roughly 600,000 right-wing religious Israelis.  Religious violence has already been attested to by followers of these parties, and such an outcome would be inevitable if they were banned.  

How do we moderate radical elements in Israeli politics such as these? 

The most effective solution is getting Israelis to vote more.  Israel once prided itself on phenomenal voter turnouts for elections.  Voter turnout in Israel has been at an all-time low the past three elections: 68% in 2003, 63% in 2006, and 65% in 2009.  In 1999, turnout was almost 79%.  If secular, left-of-center Israelis went to the polls it would decrease the relative power of these religious parties.  If religious voters heed their rabbis and vote for a religious party and Tel Avivis sit on the beach or fly to Cyprus, then the foundations of democracy will slowly be eroded.