The Emergence of Syria as a major actor in the Middle East

The short- and long-term stability of the Middle East is governed by the struggle between two rival axes who compete over power and influence.  The moderate pro-western axis includes: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and some Gulf states with the patronage of the US and the western powers.  The radical pro-Islamic axis is led by Iran which tries to gather Iraq, Lebanon and Qatar and Turkey behind her.  In the midst of these axes stands Syria which holds a key role in the current developments in Lebanon, Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.

The most significant development for Syria is its reestablishment of relations and control in Lebanon.  Since the Hariri murder and the consequent international pressure, Syria extracted all of its forces from Lebanon in 2005 and significantly reduced its control in Lebanon.  The conclusions of the Hariri Murder Investigation Committee, which are meant to be published in the next few weeks, serve as the main factor which changed Syria's attitude towards Lebanon.  The rising possibility that figures in Hezbollah will be charged in Hariri's murder, is a cause for concern within the moderate axis in the Middle East.  Nasrallah asserted that if his organization will be found to have responsibility in the Hariri murder, Hezbollah will deny it and immobilize the Lebanese government.  This could lead into clashes between Sunnis and Shiite Hezbollah supporters, a renewal of the civil war, or maybe even another conflict with Israel if Hezbollah needs a common enemy to win domestic unity.  A preview of what might happen occurred on August 24th in Beirut: violent clashes between Sunni militia and Hezbollah left three dead including a Hezbollah leader.

The worst case scenario worries the moderate Middle Eastern axis.  A Saudi prince was flown to Damascus to meet with the Syrian President and Lebanese Prime Minister in an effort to block a possible attempt by Hezbollah to destabilize Lebanon.  The Saudi prince, who was the first Saudi official to visit Syria in four years, pressed Bashir al-Assad to mediate between Hezbollah and the Hariri government. Assad convinced the Lebanese Prime Minister to state that "the unity of Lebanon is more important than the blood of his father".  Prime Minister Hariri met Assad in Damascus for the first time in mid July and signed 18 different cooperation treaties and memos.  Assad has become the Lebanese peace broker and is also a key figure in maintaining stability in the new Iraq.

American combat troops leaving Iraq left a big vacuum for a failing democracy to handle sectarian violence and the interference of other states such as Iran on its own.  Syrian newspapers report that Assad held a meeting in Damascus with two potential Iraqi Prime Ministers in an effort to help create the new Iraqi government.  According to this report, Assad took the lead in these negotiations.
Moreover, Syria is the gateway of radical Islamists to and from Iraq.  According to Amir Kulik and Yoram Shwaitzer from the Israel National Security Studies, in the last few years Syria has provided a logistic platform to Al Qaeda activists by providing them with forged Syrian passports, safe houses, and training areas.  American sources claim that 85-90% of suicide bombers entering Iraq come through Syria and, in spite of American warnings, Syria has not acted to prevent them.  Following Syria's reluctance to interfere, American Delta forces killed a high ranked Al Qaeda logistician in the Syrian village Sukkariah in 2008.  Now that American combat troops have left Iraq, Syria is the only state that controls the passage of Jihadists into an almost lawless Iraq.

In addition to giving al-Qaeda a safe haven, Syria also hosts the headquarters of the Islamic Jihad and Hamas' political wing in Damascus.  These organizations hold a large stake in disrupting peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.  Neither Hamas nor Islamic Jihad will accept a Israeli-Palestinian agreement that would leave them out of the picture.  Ha'aretz recently reported that Syria received cautionary warnings from the Obama administration not to interfere in the peace negotiations, and to restrain the Palestinian organizations acting under Syrian sovereignty.  The US and Israel are aware that failure of these negotiations could spark a renewal of armed conflict in the Middle East.

Geopolitics and historical circumstance place Syria in a key position to influence Middle Eastern stability in the short and long terms. The recent visits of American and French diplomats in Syria, and Assad's statements that he considers other mediators (aside from Turkey) for negotiating with Israel, indicate that all are aware of the new Syrian stance.  It is up to Assad to decide whether to further strengthen his ties with the more radical axis, or to cooperate with the moderate pro-western axis and halt Iran's growing influence in the Middle East.  Considering Syria's primary foreign policy goal-- survival of the regime-- it is likely that Assad will continue balancing between the two axes so long as it serves Syrian interests.
From the Israeli point of view, this could be both an opportunity and a risk.  Israel can push Syria towards the moderate axis by reinitiating peace negotiations and pushing a wedge between Syria and Iran.  The major risk is empowering Syria at the expense of Iran and Hezbollah  If they lose Syria as an ally, they will likely resort to violence on Israeli's northern border, leading to Israeli retaliation.  Israel should weigh its next move carefully and recognize Syria's emergent, critical position.